Statistical Football Betting Systems

Football Betting Systems that work by

Our first naive system results

Can the Principles of Stock Market Trading be applied to Football Sports Betting?

We aim to explore the relationship between stock market trading over long horizons with the sports betting markets on the Betting Exchanges. Initially, we are principally going to explore the results from the major European football leagues, Premier League, Ligue 1, Serie A, La Liga and the Bundesliga. What we have found while writing our collective theses is that we can return some exciting results over longer-term horizons, and we aim to transfer the skills we have acquired into predicting outcomes in the leagues named above.

What do we want to achieve?

We are looking for a limited number of people to join us on this exciting journey, that we can show and advise the people that join us, the strategies that are effective and the way to make money on the way.

What techniques and trading strategies will we be employing?

Stock market prediction models that we have developed using the Stock market trading software’s Rats and Matlab.

Which types of Econometric models will we employ?

We will utilise state of the art econometric models including but not exclusively

  • Logit Models
  • Probit Models
  • Multinomial Models
  • Ordered Choice
  • Duration Models
  • Markov Switching Regressions

We will also be using models that we have created with the specific aims of representing real life in game scenarios.

How much will it cost to subscribe to receive the sports betting tips?

We will open up a minimal number of spaces, as the betting exchanges, while some are very robust at this present time, the liquidity has limitations, and a great strategy could quickly turn into a bad strategy if overworked. The cost will be £50.00 per strategy per season or £400.00 per season for all strategies as they become available. Our aim, over time, is to produce up to 50 systems that all make over 50 points profit each. We will not bring a strategy to our members that have failed to deliver 50+ points over the previous four seasons when rigorously backtested. In stock market trading, the biggest mantra taught is how not to lose, which you do by diversifying risk. If a shock like Leicester City happens again in the Premier League and we have up to 50 systems, across five leagues, our portfolio will be robust enough to absorb these mini shocks without affecting profits.

What do we expect from you?

We would like to work with people who understand that football betting that we are involved in is not about this next game, it’s about winning consistently over season-long periods. We may have fantastic weeks where we offer 30 - 50 bets at a weekend and the majority win. We may also have what may feel like a disastrous week with the majority of bets losing, but I can assure you that the methods that we employ will provide positive returns if followed over a season. We expect that the people who join us have the mental capacity to deal with losses in the same way as gains. If you are relying on these systems as weekly income, then it is probably not for you, even though we do expect there to be weekly gains.

How many bets will you be placing on a weekly basis?

With each system that we produce, we will be able to give you the average amounts of bets placed per week in the previous four years. In my preliminary findings, we have some systems that produce 30 - 50 bets per week, and others that are less than ten bets per week. Each system will come with a bank required and robust staking plan so that you never have to make judgement calls. We will never advise trading in play as this is not what we are about. Our collective learning is all about over longer terms, and Full-Time Results. None of us on this journey will ever be a short-term or day traders.

What types of bets will we be targeting?

In the short-term we will target the markets with the most liquidity - Win - Draw - Lose, but as time develops and our dataset grows, I will be looking to expand into differing areas with higher returns. Things like time of the first goal, both teams to score, over and under goals and half-time/full-time results to name but a few. All strategies employed will be robustly backtested over the previous four seasons and make a minimum of 50 points per season, or we will not include in the portfolio.

Can you help with Football Data?

We are looking to acquire a more robust dataset of the major European leagues with more data instances than we currently have. We now utilise the free data supplied by but would like data, with especially goal times included. We have ideas around this area that we think could be potentially very profitable. If anyone could advise us of where to acquire this data, or even better if someone could supply us with a robust data set for the major European leagues then we would give that person access to all portfolio items for free for the next two seasons. Contact us on and we will advise of what the dataset must include qualifying for this offer.

When would I receive my Football Tips?

All selections would be delivered by email at least 12 hours in advance, usually on a Friday evening for the weekend ahead games.

Who are we and why are we doing this?

We are a group of 2nd Year PhD Finance students and we aim to show that you can make money through sports trading. We also want people to join us on our journey to develop and explore ideas that will generate profits.

Our learning and interests include

  • game theory
  • econometrics
  • computer science
  • financial management

Services that we offer

As well as testing and offering systems that we develop, we will also test theories on your behalf. If you have an idea that you think may be a great addition to any portfolio, but are unable to work out whether it may actually produce profits, we can help. Just get in touch and we'll see how we can help to backtest.